2017 Etobicoke Regionals results

Small but powerful

Advertisements

Thanks to Isaac’s contribution, I have the Etobicoke league results. I have uploaded them to the database, and have also updated the set PPG for the other regions, which slightly affects R-values.

Etobicoke is a small league, but it is the toughest so far with the highest average scores. This is partly attributed to Martingrove CI having a larger footprint than Lisgar CI in Ottawa or Westmount SS in Hamilton, but the other teams in Etobicoke also put up strong numbers. In the end, Martingrove won and Michael Power-St. Joseph HS finished second and qualified for provincials.

Martingrove’s R-value of 190% is pretty good. In a fair provincial tournament, it should be a Nationals-bound value, unless some other teams like UTS or London Central SS also put up amazing numbers. Martingrove is definitely within striking distance of Lisgar, and could beat them if they met in the playoffs (or heaven forbid, a pool).

Michael Power’s R-value of 129% is on par with about the lower limit of provincial qualifications that aren’t awarded simply by winning a region. It would be a struggle to make Ontario playoffs at that level, but if they get themselves in an easy pool with only one team stronger than them, they might get the needed 6-1 record. In recent history, they have finished with a rank in the teens.

A little bit of history: Michael Power occupies the building that used to house Vincent Massey CI. That was the team that won the title twice in the CBC era. Their first title was the first national season of Reach for the Top, and their second was in the 1978 national championship. The 1978 team played still-participating Richview CI in the first regional round, and that Richview team featured a young Stephen Harper.

Once again, thanks for the results, and I’ll be on the lookout for more!

2017 Hamilton Regionals results

Double the elimination, double the stats, double the fun!

Hamilton wrapped up its SchoolReach league earlier this year. Thanks to the coordinator, I have the tournament results, conveniently placed here on the database. Westmount SS beat Hillfield Strathallan College in a final after a lengthy double-elimination playoff and qualified for provincials.

This tournament gives another data set for the 2017 Regionals set. I updated the set’s average PPG to include both sites so that R-values are comparable. Westmount’s R-value of 134% would roughly place them third at the Ottawa site, which feels appropriate for a cut-off point for provincial qualifications.

Hamilton has had decent results at provincials over the years. Their representatives recently have been Westmount, Westdale, and HSC, and those teams usually finish in the 7-12 range in the rankings for a 10-team playoff. Since 2010 (the point where I have every consecutive year), the Hamilton representative has averaged a rank of 11.0.

Then I remembered that the Hamilton representative usually gets a tough ride at provincials. 2016 had HSC lumped in a pool with the Ottawa, Toronto, and London champions, but they got through a tough SOS to the playoffs. In 2013, Westdale was in the toughest pool ever (UTS & PACE went to nationals, Brother André also made playoffs) and still finished 11th.

This inspired me to do some investigating. I looked at teams that attended each year since 2010 and averaged their final ranks and strengths of schedule. In theory, an average team should rank 20th and have an SOS of 1, with SOS getting lower as ranks get better (a higher-ranked team faced competition weaker than them). How does Hamilton compare?

Team Average rank Average SOS
Martingrove CI 2.6 0.944
London Central SS 5.6 0.956
Lisgar CI 6.1 0.941
Centennial CVI 9.4 0.959
Woburn CI 10.1 0.981
Hamilton rep 11.0 1.007
Assumption CSS 15.7 0.964

Sorry Hamilton. Martingrove, Central, and Lisgar get lower SOS because they finish so highly, but comparable teams like Centennial, Woburn, and Assumption get an easier schedule. Hamilton is the Rodney Dangerfield of Ontario provincials.

Edited to add: I must correct myself. Upon an analysis comparing rank and strength of schedule over all the provincials teams, the difference between Hamilton’s and other teams’ schedules is not statistically significant. Hamilton is higher than expected, but not by a standard deviation from the others. There are teams that had statistically significant uphill battles, but I’ll leave that for an off-season downtime post.

Anyway, once again thanks for the Hamilton regional stats, and hopefully I can get some more tournaments to further determine the strength of the teams playing this set, some of whom are qualified for a provincials pool.

2017 Ottawa Regionals, Day 1

Fastest results in Canada!

15 senior teams gathered for the first day of the 2017 Ottawa SchoolReach League. Two pools, seeded by last year’s rankings, played a round-robin among themselves. The top four teams of each pool will proceed to the upper bracket on the second day for another round-robin to determine the final league standings.

The league coordinators, with a refreshing air of transparency, kept live results and scores. I have converted those results to a database table with my enigmatic R-value.

The upper bracket will have Lisgar, Earl of March, St. Pius X, and St. Paul from Group A and Glebe, Merivale, Osgoode, and Nepean from Group B. Group A was fairly easy for Lisgar, who handily put up another >190% R-value, while St. Pius X was a surprise good result. Group B was very tight between the top four, as shown by some game results:

  • Osgoode 270, Nepean 250
  • Nepean 270, Glebe 260 (after tiebreakers)
  • Glebe 280, Merivale 270 (with a blank shootout- 80 “missing” points that could have been used to shape the game)

Those four teams and Earl of March all have R-values over 100% and should have a chance at a provincials qualification. Of them, only Osgoode has never qualified before.

All will be known next week. Expect more razor-edge games!

Updating Reach Scores Database

You may be wondering why I haven’t updated the Reach Scores Database lately. Essentially, the site becomes bogged down whenever I’m free to update it (weekend nights). Also, while Semantic MediaWiki is probably the best way to sort this information in a wiki-style format, I am obviously not using it properly, since it is a pain to update team pages based on existing information about tournaments.

All tournament results I know of are up. An archive of the whole site is saved. Additionally, the back end is a spreadsheet I keep stored on my computer and in Google Docs, so the information won’t be lost easily. So don’t be alarmed if the front end site goes down.

I will try to add tournament results when I know of them. Team updates are more frustrating. I still need to make a page explaining my mysterious R-value, but this blog may end up being a more useful way to describe it.