2017 Windsor/Essex Regionals results

So many St. Joe’s!

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The results from the Windsor/Essex County SchoolReach league have been collected. I have put the results in the database. St. Joseph’s CHS from Windsor won the title in a best-of-three final over Assumption College CHS.

Windsor has historically been dominated by Vincent Massey SS, though the other schools have made it to provincials in recent years. Massey has made it twice to the Ontario semifinals in the past, but Windsor teams have struggled to make playoffs since. 2017 will be, I believe, St. Joseph’s second time at provincials (it’s hard to keep track with so many schools having a St. Joseph namesake).

There are no scores available for this league. The round-robin consisted of 3-game series being held between two schools at one site, and a representative at the site reported the wins and losses to the league coordinator. The lack of scores means, unfortunately, no R-values are available and I cannot objectively measure their strength against other Ontario teams.

2017 Etobicoke Regionals results

Small but powerful

Thanks to Isaac’s contribution, I have the Etobicoke league results. I have uploaded them to the database, and have also updated the set PPG for the other regions, which slightly affects R-values.

Etobicoke is a small league, but it is the toughest so far with the highest average scores. This is partly attributed to Martingrove CI having a larger footprint than Lisgar CI in Ottawa or Westmount SS in Hamilton, but the other teams in Etobicoke also put up strong numbers. In the end, Martingrove won and Michael Power-St. Joseph HS finished second and qualified for provincials.

Martingrove’s R-value of 190% is pretty good. In a fair provincial tournament, it should be a Nationals-bound value, unless some other teams like UTS or London Central SS also put up amazing numbers. Martingrove is definitely within striking distance of Lisgar, and could beat them if they met in the playoffs (or heaven forbid, a pool).

Michael Power’s R-value of 129% is on par with about the lower limit of provincial qualifications that aren’t awarded simply by winning a region. It would be a struggle to make Ontario playoffs at that level, but if they get themselves in an easy pool with only one team stronger than them, they might get the needed 6-1 record. In recent history, they have finished with a rank in the teens.

A little bit of history: Michael Power occupies the building that used to house Vincent Massey CI. That was the team that won the title twice in the CBC era. Their first title was the first national season of Reach for the Top, and their second was in the 1978 national championship. The 1978 team played still-participating Richview CI in the first regional round, and that Richview team featured a young Stephen Harper.

Once again, thanks for the results, and I’ll be on the lookout for more!

2017 Hamilton Regionals results

Double the elimination, double the stats, double the fun!

Hamilton wrapped up its SchoolReach league earlier this year. Thanks to the coordinator, I have the tournament results, conveniently placed here on the database. Westmount SS beat Hillfield Strathallan College in a final after a lengthy double-elimination playoff and qualified for provincials.

This tournament gives another data set for the 2017 Regionals set. I updated the set’s average PPG to include both sites so that R-values are comparable. Westmount’s R-value of 134% would roughly place them third at the Ottawa site, which feels appropriate for a cut-off point for provincial qualifications.

Hamilton has had decent results at provincials over the years. Their representatives recently have been Westmount, Westdale, and HSC, and those teams usually finish in the 7-12 range in the rankings for a 10-team playoff. Since 2010 (the point where I have every consecutive year), the Hamilton representative has averaged a rank of 11.0.

Then I remembered that the Hamilton representative usually gets a tough ride at provincials. 2016 had HSC lumped in a pool with the Ottawa, Toronto, and London champions, but they got through a tough SOS to the playoffs. In 2013, Westdale was in the toughest pool ever (UTS & PACE went to nationals, Brother André also made playoffs) and still finished 11th.

This inspired me to do some investigating. I looked at teams that attended each year since 2010 and averaged their final ranks and strengths of schedule. In theory, an average team should rank 20th and have an SOS of 1, with SOS getting lower as ranks get better (a higher-ranked team faced competition weaker than them). How does Hamilton compare?

Team Average rank Average SOS
Martingrove CI 2.6 0.944
London Central SS 5.6 0.956
Lisgar CI 6.1 0.941
Centennial CVI 9.4 0.959
Woburn CI 10.1 0.981
Hamilton rep 11.0 1.007
Assumption CSS 15.7 0.964

Sorry Hamilton. Martingrove, Central, and Lisgar get lower SOS because they finish so highly, but comparable teams like Centennial, Woburn, and Assumption get an easier schedule. Hamilton is the Rodney Dangerfield of Ontario provincials.

Edited to add: I must correct myself. Upon an analysis comparing rank and strength of schedule over all the provincials teams, the difference between Hamilton’s and other teams’ schedules is not statistically significant. Hamilton is higher than expected, but not by a standard deviation from the others. There are teams that had statistically significant uphill battles, but I’ll leave that for an off-season downtime post.

Anyway, once again thanks for the Hamilton regional stats, and hopefully I can get some more tournaments to further determine the strength of the teams playing this set, some of whom are qualified for a provincials pool.

2017 Ottawa Regionals results

Record-breaking!

The 2017 Ottawa SchoolReach league wrapped up today. 15 teams sorted out their year-end placements in the senior division. Lisgar CI ended as champion in a placement final over Merivale HS, with both qualifying for provincials.

I have completed the result table here. The database page also has a link to the original results document from the coordinators. Some results highlights:

  • Lisgar’s win was expected, but it was dominant. Their R-value of 210% is the highest I have on record, even higher than the low 190s Lisgar pulled in regionals during their championship years. Even more incredibly, they didn’t benefit from a high strength of schedule that helps boost most good R-values – they did it with an SOS of less than 1.
  • Merivale stepped it up on the second day. They were statistically behind Glebe after the first day, but clearly earned their second place (and qualification) today. Nepean also made a marked improvement to climb from seventh to third place.
  • St. Pius X pulled off their best-ever result with a 7th place.

I read in the lower bracket. The games were lower-scoring, but they were usually close. The 9th-place match between Mother Teresa and Cairine Wilson in particular had constant back-and-forth in answering and saw tie scores at each break.

I also, obviously, can’t discuss question content, but questions I wrote way back in 2014 started appearing. Unfortunately, I feel that the subject matter is better suited for provincials/nationals level, rather than the regional set. Then again, the regional set also had very obscure material (that I had never heard of in my years of experience), so maybe my stuff didn’t stand out too much. I’d estimate the equivalent of 25 questions across 16 rounds that were read came from my hand, so there’s still plenty more in Reach’s arsenal.

The day went smoothly. I played no part in organization other than providing a reading voice and some buzzers, so all credit goes to the coordinators that make Ottawa one of the best-run, strongest, and most transparent leagues in Canada. Also, kudos to the teams for being good sports and keeping good behaviour, even when a lower bracket match feels like an ideal time to goof off.

Now, some rest.

2017 Ottawa Regionals, Day 2 preview

Comparing results from before players were born.

The 2017 Ottawa SchoolReach league wraps up tomorrow. The top 8 teams will play a round-robin, followed by a one-game match between consecutive-ranked teams (1 vs 2, 3 vs 4, etc). The same holds true for the lower flight of seven teams.

Some teams will have a chance at their best result ever. Here’s a look at the top flight’s previous best local results, at least as far back as 1999 for the most part:

  • #1 Lisgar: 1st outright nine times (2001, 2004, 2006-07, 2010-12, 2015-16)
  • #2 Glebe: 2nd once (2015)
  • #3 Merivale: 1st outright four times (1999, 2002-03, 2013); Lisgar and Merivale had unresolved ties for 1st in 2008 and 2009
  • #4 Osgoode: 5th once (1999), but that was out of six teams; they got 7th in 2012
  • #5 Earl of March: 2nd once (2012)
  • #6 St. Pius X: 15th twice (2015, 2016); this year will be their best result
  • #7 Nepean: 1st once (1996), but I don’t have tournament details; they got 3rd in 2016
  • #8 St. Paul: 4th once (2016)

I will live-tweet results from my room as I finish them. Hopefully, a live results table will continue to be available here.

Good luck to the teams!

2017 Ottawa Regionals, Day 1

Fastest results in Canada!

15 senior teams gathered for the first day of the 2017 Ottawa SchoolReach League. Two pools, seeded by last year’s rankings, played a round-robin among themselves. The top four teams of each pool will proceed to the upper bracket on the second day for another round-robin to determine the final league standings.

The league coordinators, with a refreshing air of transparency, kept live results and scores. I have converted those results to a database table with my enigmatic R-value.

The upper bracket will have Lisgar, Earl of March, St. Pius X, and St. Paul from Group A and Glebe, Merivale, Osgoode, and Nepean from Group B. Group A was fairly easy for Lisgar, who handily put up another >190% R-value, while St. Pius X was a surprise good result. Group B was very tight between the top four, as shown by some game results:

  • Osgoode 270, Nepean 250
  • Nepean 270, Glebe 260 (after tiebreakers)
  • Glebe 280, Merivale 270 (with a blank shootout- 80 “missing” points that could have been used to shape the game)

Those four teams and Earl of March all have R-values over 100% and should have a chance at a provincials qualification. Of them, only Osgoode has never qualified before.

All will be known next week. Expect more razor-edge games!

2017 Ottawa Regionals Preview

Where do the Gatineau teams go?

Ottawa SchoolReach league competition starts tomorrow. It is probably due for a preview.

The Ottawa league has been around since the early 1990s, and has historically fielded strong competition. Six national titles have come out of the league, more than any other (though Toronto is split into multiple leagues). Ottawa schools also took two titles in the CBC era. The league’s heyday was probably the turn of the millennium, when veteran Bell and Gloucester teams would take on the new challengers in Merivale and Lisgar.

Competition has dwindled somewhat today. Past champions Bell, Gloucester, Hillcrest, and Rideau no longer compete. Former league winners Ridgemont and Colonel By are also gone. Attendance has also dropped since the mid-2000s peak, which threatens the number of qualification spots.

One of those provincial qualification spots will likely go to Lisgar. It has since 2001, an active qualification streak longer than any other Ontario team. Don’t count chickens before they hatch, however – 2016 title favourite UTS failed to get out of their region last year.

The remaining spot (or spots, the number changes each year) will probably see the most competition. Glebe, Merivale, and Nepean have all qualified in recent years. Mother Teresa has almost always been in the city playoffs since the school was built. St. Paul and Sir Wilfrid Laurier have also just been within reach recently.

I will be at the competition. Unfortunately, arrangements will not be made for recording audio, but I will still have written updates. A lot of other Ontario regions are underway or will start soon; any results I can get will also be published.